What is COP and how does it work?

As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP 28, I thought I’d look into how it started and what’s involved.

COP stands for Conference of Parties. Essentially Member States around the world, of which there are 197 representative countries (basically the whole world except Palestine) come together to agree or disagree on climate related issues. Each country can vote on certain matters and each country’s vote is equal, therefore China and India with 1.5 billion people have equal voting power as Tuvalu and the Vatican.

The COP is held every year in different locations around the world. COP 1 was held in Berlin in 1995 and laid the groundwork for future discussions. Many of the COP conversations are focused around global warming, greenhouse gases, fossil fuels, developed & developing countries, financing the fight against climate change and terminology. Not every COP delivers ground-breaking results and it’s debatable whether any COP has, but COP 3 and COP 21 have been the most fundamental.

COP 3 Kyoto 1997: The Kyoto Protocol established legally binding obligations for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and was the first international agreement setting targets for reducing emissions, which included a 5% reduction from 1990 levels by 2012.

COP 21 Paris 2015: The Paris Agreement saw 194 countries commit to limiting global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Each country submitted its individual nationally determined contribution (NDC) to curb emissions.

Fast forward to today and the outcome of the Kyoto Protocol can be seen. Many countries hit their targets but did so by shifting heavy polluting industries offshore, effectively resulting in increased global emissions due to poorer manufacturing standards in developing countries. Coupled with freight to return the manufactured goods and the rise of China, global emissions increased by 32% from 1990 to 2010.

To add salt to the wounds, ambiguous terminology in the agreement prevented any repercussions to the developed countries for not achieving their targets.

The graph below shows no change in the trend line of emissions since world leaders started tackling climate change.

I believe fighting climate is a first world problem. It’s a luxury expense for an economic surplus. Countries that are facing famine, natural disasters or recession are not focusing on emissions, they’ve got other problems to worry about and for many countries tough times last for generations. Additionally, every country has their own interests at heart, many petrostates and fossil fuel rich countries are still questioning the science and wanting to capitalise on their remaining reserves.

So how do you get the world to agree? My years’ of experience in sustainability shows it always comes down to money. Governments will use carrots in the form of incentives to drive the uptake of renewables and energy efficiency, and sticks in the form of fines to punish poor performance. However, until renewable energy becomes cheaper and more efficient than fossil fuels the planet will continue on it’s current trajectory, but when that moment occurs it will be the tipping point for the energy transition.